European governments are quietly moving defence responsibilities down to individuals, households, and private operators. These plans expect those responsibilities to be met largely from the household's or the operator's own resources. In effect, this is a self-funded share of national defence, and we will demonstrate why later in the briefing. Surveys of the people receiving these tasks, the general populace, show that most say they are not prepared, even for the 72 hours now being communicated as “the norm”. The revised defense plans cannot measure what the population is able to do, because what population capability looks like has not yet been defined, nor with the input of the population itself.
Governments face a choice. They can plan national defence around a population that says it is not ready, or they can invest in the capacity of households and communities to carry out what the plans are asking for in terms of obligations and support. The latter of the two being significantly more difficult, and with real political implications.
The move towards population as a defense is becoming a reality. On 17 September 2026 NATO made public, for the first time, the seven baseline requirements against which its Allies measure their preparedness. The foreword says resilience also prepares individuals for whatever might come. This brief reads what Europe's plans ask of those communities and individuals, what the individuals report about themselves, and what the plans do with the difference between the self reported capacity and requirements for national security and defense.
What we're reviewing in this issue
What Europe's plans ask households and operators to do (or not) and prepare for in the words of the documents that ask it.
What the community surveys report about the people receiving those tasks and how they feel about their own level of preparedness.
Why the plans do not respond to what the surveys report, or acknowledge them, and what a government could do about it.
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